The Fall of the ANC Continues

Mzukisi Qobo, Prince Mashele

Description

‘On the basis of the current state of politics in South Africa – of corruption, factionalism, the use of politics as a means of accumulation, all of which are abundant in the ANC – we have come to the conclusion that, if the party does not make a serious U-turn, it will ruin itself, and our country at the same time. This will not go on forever, for newer generations will, to avoid further ruin, act to bring about political change. We have faith in the rational capacity of human beings, even as we know that history reminds us that humankind can sometimes be foolish.’
Political governance in South Africa has collapsed. Scandals of corruption, evidence of nepotism, rampant maladministration in provinces, incompetence in public offices and a general decline in the quality of leadership are there for all to see.
In the authors’ view, this state of affairs has its origins in the messiness and collapse of the African National Congress. As helplessness deepens in our society, concerned citizens ask: What will happen to South Africa?
The Fall of the ANC Continues: What Next? seeks to answer this question of the fate that awaits the country.

Sujets

• Comparative Politics
• Political Science
• Republic of South Africa
• Sudáfrica
• South Africa
• Afrique du Sud

Informations

• Publié par: Pan Macmillan South Africa
• Date de parution: 01 octobre 2017
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781770105676
• Langue: English

Extrait

THE FALL OF THE ANC CONTINUES


To all the thinking people in South Africa


THE FALL OF THE ANC CONTINUES
What next?
Prince Mashele & Mzukisi Qobo
PICADOR AFRICA


First published in 2014 by Picador Africa
This edition published in 2017 by Picador Africa
an imprint of Pan Macmillan South Africa
Private Bag X19
Northlands, Johannesburg, 2116
www.panmacmillan.co.za
ISBN 978-1-77010-564-5
e- ISBN 978-1-77010-567-6
© Prince Mashele and Mzukisi Qobo 2014, 2017
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the publisher. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
Editing by Alison Lowry
Proofreading by Kelly Norwood-Young
Cover design by K4


CONTENTS
Abbreviations
Preface
Introduction
Chapter 1: A Historic Necessity
Chapter 2: Ready to Govern?
Chapter 3: False Optimism?
Chapter 4: How the ANC is Falling
Chapter 5: Falling with Partners
Chapter 6: State Institutions in Peril
Chapter 7: A Road to an Economic Dead End
Chapter 8: The Wave of Post-colonial African Politics
Chapter 9: Is this the Society the ANC had in Mind?
Chapter 10: The State of our Politics
Chapter 11: Through the Eye of Imagination
Chapter 12: Will Change Impose Itself?
Conclusion
Acknowledgements
End Notes and References


ABBREVIATIONS
Amcu – Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union
ANC – African National Congress
ANCWL – ANC Women’s League
ANCYL – ANC Youth League
AsgiSA – Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa
Azapo – Azanian People’s Organisation
BEE – Black Economic Empowerment
Comintern – Communist International
COPE – Congress of the People
Cosatu – Congress of South African Trade Unions
CPSA – Communist Party of South Africa
CPSU – Communist Party of the Soviet Union
DA – Democratic Alliance
DBSA – Development Bank of Southern Africa
DRC – Democratic Republic of the Congo
EFF – Economic Freedom Fighters
Gear – Growth, Employment and Redistribution
IFP – Inkatha Freedom Party
Jipsa – Joint Initiative on Priority Skills Acquisition
LIH – Lembede Investment Holdings
MERG – Macro-economic Research Group
MK – Umkhonto weSizwe
NDR – National Democratic Revolution
NEC – National Executive Committee
NEF – National Economic Forum
NP – National Party
NUM – National Union of Mineworkers
OAU – Organisation of African Unity
PAC – Pan Africanist Congress
RDP – Reconstruction and Development Programme
SABC – South African Broadcasting Corporation
SACP – South African Communist Party
SADTU – South African Democratic Teachers Union
SANNC – South African Native National Congress
SOPA – Socialist Party of Azania
TRC – Truth and Reconciliation Commission
UDF – United Democratic Front
VOC – Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie


PREFACE
We were right to begin the preface to the first edition of this book with the line: ‘Predicting the future is impossible.’ We were also correct when we proceeded to say, ‘Political and social developments are, by their very nature, fluid, and anyone who pretends to have divine insight into the future should be doubted.’
As we were writing the first edition back 2014, Jacob Zuma was still going around telling public gatherings that the ANC would rule until the return of Jesus Christ. Two years later, in 2016, mischievous artists were scribbling pictures of Jesus Christ knocking on the municipal doors of Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg and Tshwane. This was after the ANC lost these three municipalities. Since then Zuma has addressed many a church gathering, but he no longer tells his audiences that the ANC will rule until Jesus Christ comes back.
Perhaps we should have been blunter and said, ‘Only a fool claims to know the future.’ If you do not know when Christ will come back, how would you know that the ANC will rule until he returns?
When we said the ANC was falling, many people in the ANC thought we were suffering from the worst form of madness. But today those who said so then secretly approach us to ask: ‘How did you foresee all this?’ By ‘this’ they mean all the internal political mess the ANC has brought to itself since we wrote the first edition of this book. Indeed, a lot of ‘this’ has taken place over the past three years. That is why the title of this second edition is The Fall of the ANC Continues .


INTRODUCTION
The title of this second edition is The Fall of the ANC Continues: What Next? The ‘Continues’ was not there in the title of the first edition, which was The Fall of the ANC: What Next? Since the publication of the first edition in 2014, the party has continued to fall.
All who have eyes can see that the ANC is today worse than it was in 2014. In the 2016 municipal elections, the party lost three big metros – Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg and Tshwane. Since then its president, Jacob Zuma, has hopped from one embarrassing scandal to another. Last year he was found to have violated the country’s constitution by the highest court in our land – the Constitutional Court. As if this was not enough, former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela concluded a State of Capture Report that revealed the extent to which the notorious Gupta family has virtually taken over the South African state.
As South Africans thought Zuma had reached the bottom, he proved further and further that insanity has no bounds. In 2015 he fired Nhlanhla Nene as Finance Minister, costing the South African economy more than R500 billion. This year, in April 2017, he did it again: he sacked yet another respected Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, in a move interpreted by most observers as another step in state capture.
South Africans have been protesting in vain to get Zuma removed, but his party – the ANC – has done nothing to show that it takes public disgust seriously. Each time the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meets, the public’s sense of expectation is followed by the leadership of the party’s statement of solidarity with Zuma. Even the ANC’s alliance partners – the SACP and Cosatu – have reached an enough-is-enough moment. They have both called for Zuma to step down. But the ANC continues to defend him.
The damage done by the ANC government to the South African state is enormous. The state has virtually collapsed. The criminal justice system has been destroyed. Infighting in the upper echelons of the police are as breathtaking as are shenanigans in the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). From time to time the public is treated to the circus of ministers and senior officials embroiled in wars of annihilation against one another.
The looting of public resources within state-owned enterprises is as brazen as is the control of cabinet ministers by the Guptas. It reached the critical point where international ratings agencies downgraded South Africa to junk status. More and more South Africans are now losing their jobs. The prospects of finding new employment are dim. In a nutshell, no sane person in South Africa or abroad trusts the Zuma government today. The ANC has reduced ours to a veritable rogue state.
All this corroborates our observation that The Fall of the ANC Continues . In 2014, it was difficult to answer the question, What Next? To be safe we adopted a 20-year time horizon within which to make predictions.
The political events of the past three years have proven us right and wrong. We have been proven right that the ANC is indeed falling, and proven wrong in our prediction that this might take 20 years. Many people inside and outside the ANC now entertain the possibility of the party losing the 2019 elections. We, too, believe it is possible.
This is not a new book. It is an updated version – a second edition – of the one we published in 2014. The second edition adduces more evidence that indeed The Fall of the ANC Continues . In addition to three new chapters – ‘State Institutions in Peril’, ‘A Road to an Economic Dead End’ and ‘The State of our Politics’ – we have updated many parts of the book to take into account political and economic developments that have taken place since 2014. Those who will read this second edition will be more fulfilled than those who read the first edition.
Three years ago we did not foresee the possibility of the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) helping each other to constitute municipal governments. This has happened. We wrote the first edition of this book while Dr Mamphela Ramphele was busy threatening to enter politics. Now she and her Agang SA lie buried in a tangled heap of political dross. All this has made it possible for us to see new political possibilities for the future. This is why our answer to the What Next? question has been revised.
Johnny Nash has a beautiful song titled ‘I Can See Clearly Now’. Given what has happened in South African politics over the past three years or so, it feels like we, too, can see clearly now. But we cannot sing along with Johnny Nash and say, ‘It’s gonna be bright.’
It is possible that our country is in for a long dark night of political disorder. It is also not impossible for our recovery to come sooner than most people expect. What we know, as we have said in the first edition of this book, is that he who claims to know the future is the best liar. But that The Fall of the ANC Continues we know. As you will see in the pages ahead, we are a