Global Green Shift

John A. Mathews

Description

Winner of 2018 Schumpeter Prize Competition. The book provides an in-depth explanation of the issues facing humanity and the evolving solutions.

Western industrialism has achieved miracles, promoting unprecedented levels of prosperity and raising millions around the world out of poverty. Industrial capitalism is now diffusing throughout the East. Japan, the four Tigers (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) and China are all incorporating themselves into the global industrial world. India, Brazil and many others are expected to follow the same course. But as China, India and other industrializing giants grow, they confront an inconvenient truth: they cannot rely on the Western industrial development model of fossil-fueled energy systems (resource throughput rather than circularity and generic finance) because these methods cause extreme spoliation of the environment and raise energy security, resource security and global warming concerns.

By necessity, a new approach to environmentally conscious development is already emerging in the East, with China leading the way in building a green industry at scale. As opposed to Western zero-growth advocates and free-market environmentalists, it can be argued that a more sustainable capitalism is being developed in China – to counter black developmental model based on coal. This new ‘green growth’ model of development, being perfected in China and now being emulated in India, Brazil, South Africa (and eventually by industrializing countries elsewhere), as well as by advanced industrial countries such as Germany, looks to become the new norm in the twenty-first century. Its core advantages are the energy security and resource security that are generated.

The British scientist James Lovelock has done the world an enormous service by formulating the theory of a ‘living earth’ named Gaia, where life self-regulates itself and the planet by keeping the atmospheric environment more or less constant, and likewise the environment of the oceans. In China’s Green Shift, Global Green Shift, Mathews proposes a way in which Gaia (a product of the processes of the earth) can be complemented by Ceres (our own creation of a renewable energy and circular economy system). Can these two concepts of how the earth works, represented by two powerful deities, be reconciled? While Lovelock is pessimistic, asserting that Gaia will look after herself and that if we survive at all it is likely to be as a greatly diminished industrial civilization, numbering no more than one billion people, Mathews argues in this book why he believes this prognosis to be mistaken. Mathews maintains that the changes that ‘we’ are driving, as a species, represent a viable way forward. They give us a chance of reconciling economy with ecology – or Ceres with Gaia.

List of Figures; Foreword by Dr Shi Zhengrong; Preface; List of Acronyms; Part I: Dynamics of the Green Transition; 1. Introduction; 2. Evolutionary Dynamics of Our Industrial Civilization; 3. Ecomodernization –with ‘Chinese Characteristics’; 4. Sociotechnical Transitions: A Sixth Wave; 5. No Wonder China and India Are Pursuing Green Growth Strategies So Vigorously; 6. Finance Now Playing a Central Role in the Green Shift; 7. Can the China Model Be Utilized by Other Industrializing Countries?; 8. Green Growth Development Strategies, Local Content Requirements and World Trade; 9. Farewell Fossil Fuels; Part II: Sixth Wave Eco- Innovations; 10. Global Population Peaking […] and Urbanizing; 11. Energy That Is Clean, Cheap, Abundant – and Safe; 12. Reframing Renewables as Enhancing Energy Security; 13. The Myths of ‘Renewistan’; 14. Recirculation and Regeneration of Resources (Circular Economy); 15. Food and Fresh Water Production; 16. Energy, Water, Food for Cities: Deploying a Positive Triple Nexus; 17. Eco- Cities of the Future; 18. When Ceres Meets Gaia; Bibliography; Index.

Sujets

• POLITICAL SCIENCE
• Sustainability
• Energy policy
• Public policy
• Asian
• World

Informations

• Publié par: Anthem Press
• Date de parution: 01 février 2017
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781783086436
• Langue: English

Extrait

GLOBAL GREEN SHIFT
GLOBAL GREEN SHIFT
WHEN CERES MEETS GAIA
JOHN A. MATHEWS
Anthem Press
An imprint of Wimbledon Publishing Company
www.anthempress.com

This edition first published in UK and USA 2017
by ANTHEM PRESS
75–76 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8HA, UK
or PO Box 9779, London SW19 7ZG, UK
and
244 Madison Ave #116, New York, NY 10016, USA

© John A. Mathews 2017

The author asserts the moral right to be identified as the author of this work.

All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested.

ISBN-13: 978-1-78308-640-5 (Hbk)
ISBN-10: 1-78308-640-8 (Hbk)

ISBN-13: 978-1-78308-641-2 (Pbk)
ISBN-10: 1-78308-641-6 (Pbk)

This title is also available as an e-book.
CONTENTS
List of Figures
Foreword
Dr Shi Zhengrong
Preface
List of Acronyms
Part I Dynamics of the Green Transition
CHAPTER 1 Introduction
It’s Not All about Climate Change
Geopolitical and Environmental Limits to Fossil Fuels
China’s Energy Strategies
Anthropocene Choices: Moral vs. Economic
Ecomodernization Strategies
When Ceres Meets Gaia
Outline of Chapters
CHAPTER 2 Evolutionary Dynamics of Our Industrial Civilization
Industrial Transformations
Shifting Wealth
The Feasible Ecomodernization Strategies of China and India
CHAPTER 3 Ecomodernization – with ‘Chinese Characteristics’
Ecological Modernization
Decoupling
CHAPTER 4 Sociotechnical Transitions: A Sixth Wave
Five Waves of Sociotechnical Transition
Sixth Wave Transitions: Food, Water, Resources, Energy
Reverse Salients
Sixth Wave Trends – Decoupling Economies from Natural Constraints
CHAPTER 5 No Wonder China and India Are Pursuing Green Growth Strategies So Vigorously
China and Its Green Growth Strategy
What Are the Options Available for China?
India’s Renewables Strategy
CHAPTER 6 Finance Now Playing a Central Role in the Green Shift
Tapping the Capital Markets: The Kexim Green Bonds
Green Bonds Expansion
China and the Building of a Green Financial System
CHAPTER 7 Can the China Model Be Utilized by Other Industrializing Countries?
Advantages of Green Growth Development Strategies
Prospects for Green Growth in Developing Countries: Morocco as Exemplar
CHAPTER 8 Green Growth Development Strategies, Local Content Requirements and World Trade
Local Content Requirements and ‘Next Generation’ Trade Disputes
Green Reforms to the World’s Trade System
Integrating the World’s Trade and Climate Regimes: A Proposal
CHAPTER 9 Farewell Fossil Fuels
Declining Industries
Oil and Gas Industry Problems
Imperfect Transition
Oil in the Twentieth Century: Wars, Revolutions and Terror
Japanese Experience with the Allied Oil Embargo
Part II Sixth Wave Eco-Innovations
CHAPTER 10 Global Population Peaking … and Urbanizing
The Demographic Transition
Urbanization as Ecomodernization
Cities as Wealth Creators
CHAPTER 11 Energy That Is Clean, Cheap, Abundant – and Safe
Manufacturing Energy
Renewables – a Moving Technological Frontier
Production/Generation of Energy That Is Clean, Cheap, Abundant – and Safe
CHAPTER 12 Reframing Renewables as Enhancing Energy Security
Energy Security and Fossil Fuel Geopolitics
Energy Security Based on Manufacturing of Renewables
From Oil Security to Energy Security
CHAPTER 13 The Myths of ‘Renewistan’
Ridiculous Renewistan
Rebutting the Arguments Raised against Renewables
Superiority of Renewables
CHAPTER 14 Recirculation and Regeneration of Resources (Circular Economy)
Enhancing Resource Security
China’s Circular Economy Initiatives
Urban Mining
What Holds Back the Diffusion of the Circular Economy?
CHAPTER 15 Food and Fresh Water Production
Urban Veggies: Vertical Farming Initiatives
Meat – without Torturing and Murdering Animals
Clean, Fresh Water
CHAPTER 16 Energy, Water, Food for Cities: Deploying a Positive Triple Nexus
Hydrosolar Gardens: Systemic Interconnections
Sundrop Farms
Wider Economic Significance of the Sundrop Farms Concept
CHAPTER 17 Eco-Cities of the Future
The Eco-City Infrastructure
Chinese Eco-Fantasies?
CHAPTER 18 When Ceres Meets Gaia
Managing Change: The Differential Principle
A ‘Moderate’ Ecomodernism: In Defence of Conventional Renewables
A Hot Planet
Twilight of the Gods: Gaia, Vulcan and Ceres
Bibliography
Index
FIGURES
1.1 China’s generation capacity from WWS sources compared with other leading industrial countries, 2015
1.2 Transformation of PV cell manufacturing over the past 20 years
1.3 Clean energy investment, China vs. EU, 2005–2015
1.4 Global investment in power capacity, 2008–2015
2.1 Diverging national incomes per capita, 1500–1950
2.2 The Great Acceleration – socio-economic trends, 1750–2010
2.3 Share of manufacturing value-added, OECD vs. non-OECD countries, 1995–2013
3.1 The Decoupling Index and economic growth
5.1 China: Trends in power sources generated from water, wind and sun (WWS), 1990–2015
5.2 The black face of China: Coal-fired power generation, 1980–2015
5.3 China: Revised coal consumption data
6.1 Growth in green bonds issued, 2012–2015
9.1 Manchukuo
10.1 World urbanization, 1950–2015 (and 2050 projection)
10.2 China: Urban residents and their proportion in the total population, 1949–2015
11.1 Solar PV module experience curve, 1976–2013
11.2 Lithium-ion battery costs
14.1 China: Material intensity trends, 1990–2015
14.2 Copper regeneration in Suzhou New District
16.1 Schematic of the Hydrosolar Garden system
FOREWORD
Dr Shi Zhengrong
Founder, former Chairman and CEO, Suntech Power, China
I first met John Mathews when he invited me to give a business breakfast address in Sydney in February 2015 on the theme of the greening of the global economy, drawing on my experience with Suntech Power in China. We hit it off and found commonality of views on many aspects of what we agreed was the dominant trend of our time. Now I am delighted to provide this Foreword to his new book, which elaborates on the theme of the greening that is driving China’s transformation and is now diffusing around the world. His argument is compelling.
When I started Suntech Power back in 2001, and particularly after our IPO on the New York Stock Exchange in December 2005, I felt that we were helping to fashion a new world that would be independent of fossil fuels and supplant them as the dominant energy source. These were exciting times as we created the world’s first mass production system for solar cells. Despite the setback of Suntech’s financial stumble (which saw me part company with the firm), the Chinese build-up of solar and wind power and renewables generally has been inexorable, and is clearly the dominant energy trend in our time given the fact that the electricity price for solar and wind is now well below 10 cents/kWh in many countries in the world. I can endorse John Mathews’s interpretation of this trend as providing China with real energy security, based on the fact that all renewables devices are the products of manufacturing. There would appear to be no argument superior to this in accounting for the global green shift, with China as its driver.
I agree with John Mathews that we are living through a great transformation of our energy systems, one that is going to see the supersession of the fossil fuel systems that underpinned the rise of the West and subsequently shaped the rise of East Asia in the twentieth century. Now it is a greening that is shaping the rise of China and India in the twenty-first century. The global stagnation created by the twilight years of the fossil fuel sector, and the dynamism associated with the renewables sector, is striking.
Three quarters of a century ago, the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter outlined a radical view of the workings of the capitalist economy in his Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy , where he outlined the influential view that capitalism proceeds through the rise of new industries that creatively destroy the old. John Mathews picks up this Schumpeterian theme in his new book, arguing that the global green shift is driven by creative destruction of the fossil fuels status quo. He is persuasive in his account of this dynamic process, presenting it as a major sociotechnical transition – indeed the sixth such transition since the Industrial Revolution. He paints a convincing picture of the scale of this sixth transition, fo