Low-Carbon Development for Mexico

Todd M. Johnson

Description

To reduce the risk of climate change impacts it is necessary for the world to lower the carbon intensity of economic development. 'Low-Carbon Development for Mexico' estimates the net costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, and investment that would be needed to achieve a low-carbon scenario in Mexico to the year 2030.
Among the key findings of the study are the following:

▪ Energy efficiency. Improving energy end-use efficiency in the industrial, residential, and public sectors is the least-cost option for reducing carbon emissions and can be achieved by accelerating current Mexican programs and policies.
▪ Supply efficiency and renewable energy. Mexico can lower the carbon intensity of the economy by improving the efficiency of energy supply in the electric power and petroleum industries, and by expanding the adoption of renewable energy technologies such as wind, biomass, small hydro, and geothermal.
▪ Public transport and vehicle fleet efficiency. Transport is the largest and fastest growing contributor of GHG emissions in Mexico, the majority of which comes from road transport. The greatest potential for reducing transport emissions lies with improving the quality and efficiency of urban transport, including more efficient vehicles and the design and organization of cities and public transport systems.
▪ Forestry - significant potential with large co-benefits. Measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), along with afforestation and commercial plantations, are among the largest GHG mitigation options in Mexico, and could provide numerous social and environmental benefits in rural areas.
▪ By undertaking a limited number of low-carbon interventions that are technologically and financially viable today, Mexico could hold carbon emissions relatively constant over the coming two decades while maintaining a vigorous rate of economic and social development. The costs of such a program would be relatively modest, but would require a range of regulatory and institutional changes to achieve, especially in the energy and transport sectors.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 14 décembre 2009
• Nombre de lectures: 20
• EAN13: 9780821381236
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Low-Carbon Development for
MEXICO
Todd M. Johnson
Claudio Alatorre
Zayra Romo
Feng Liu Low-Carbon
Development for
MexicoLow-Carbon
Development for
Mexico
Todd M. Johnson
Claudio Alatorre
Zayra Romo
Feng Liu© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The
World Bank
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Washington DC 20433
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8122-9
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8123-6
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8122-9
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Low-carbon development for Mexico / Todd M. Johnson… [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8122-9 — ISBN 978-0-8213-8123-6 (electronic)
1. Energy policy—Mexico. 2. Power resources—Mexico. 3. Carbon dioxide
mitigation—Mexico. I. Johnson, Todd (Todd Milo), 1956–
HD9502.M62L69 2009
363.738’7460972—dc22
2009035879
Cover photograph: Andres Balcazar, ©iStockphoto.com/abalcazar
Cover design: Critical StagesContents
Preface ix
About the Authors xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Abbreviations xvii
Overview 1
Benef ts of Moving to a Low-Carbon Economy 1
Mitigation Options, by Sector 2
Emissions Reductions Associated with a Low-Carbon Scenario 6
Elements of a Low-Carbon Program 7
1: Introduction 11
Objectives of the Study 11
Strategic Signif cance to Mexico of Low-Carbon Development 13
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mexico 15
Mexico’s Climate Change Actions 17
Overview of the Sector Analysis and Structure of the Report 18
2: Electric Power 23
The Baseline Scenario 25
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario 27
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 30
Conclusions 31
3: Oil and Gas 35
The Baseline Scenario 3738
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 41
Conclusions 43
vvi Contents
4: Energy End-Use 45
The Baseline Scenario 46
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario 51
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 55
Conclusions 59
5: Transport 63
The Baseline Scenario 646670
Conclusions 71
6: Agriculture and Forestry 73
The Baseline Scenario 74
The MEDEC Low-Carbon Scenario 74
Barriers to Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 79
Conclusions 81
7: A Low-Carbon Scenario for Mexico 83
The Carbon Path under the Baseline Scenario 83
The MEDEC Alternative Low-Carbon Path 85
The Net Costs (Benef ts) of Emissions Reduction 87
Macroeconomic Impact of MEDEC Interventions 89
8: Elements of a Low-Carbon Development Program 93
High-Priority Areas 93
“Feasibility” and Barriers to Implementation 94
Financing Low-Carbon Interventions 97
Policies for Low-Carbon Development 99
The Importance of Co-Benef ts 100
Near-Term Actions 102
International Support 103
Appendixes
A: Summary of MEDEC Interventions 107
B: Summary of Benef t-Cost Analysis Methodology 109
C: Intervention Assumptions 113
Bibliography 143
Index 149
Boxes
1.1 Cost-Benef t Analysis Methodology 12
1.2 Criteria for Selecting Interventions 20
3.1 Financing Pemex Infrastructure Projects with High
Environmental Benef ts 42
4.1 Reducing Emissions, Saving Time, and Providing Health Benef ts
through Improved Cookstoves 53
4.2 Underpricing Electricity through Residential Subsidies 58
5.1 More Time and Better Health: Co-Benef ts of Reducing
Emissions in the Transport Sector 69 Contents vii
8.1 Policies to Support Low-Carbon Development 100
Figures
1 Projected Emissions Reduction by Sector under the MEDEC
Low-Carbon Scenario 7
2 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 8
1.1 Comparison of Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions and GDP,
G8+5 Countries, 2003 16
1.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, by Source 17
1.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Production and
Consumption, by Sector 18
2.1 Electric Power Generation by Fuel Type in Selected Countries,
2005 24
2.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses in the Electric Power
Sector for Selected Countries 25
2.3 Electricity Generation by Fuel Type in Mexico: Historical Trend
and Projected Growth under the Baseline Scenario, 1965–2030 26
2.4 CO2e Emissions from Electric Power Generation: Baseline versus
MEDEC Scenarios, 2008–30 27
2.5 Electric Power Generation by Fuel Type in Baseline versus
MEDEC Scenarios 29
3.1 Pemex Debt and Earnings in Recent Years 36
3.2 Natural Gas Production in Mexico 37
4.1 Energy End-Uses in Mexico by Sector, 2006 46
4.2 International Comparisons of Energy Intensity Trends 47
4.3 Industrial Energy Use by Subsector, 2006 48
4.4 Energy End-Use by Sector: Baseline Scenario 51
4.5 Mitigation Costs of Improved Cookstoves 54
5.1 Motor Vehicle Ownership: Historical Trend and Projected
Growth for Selected Countries 64
5.2 Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices in Mexico, 1980–2007 65
5.3 Transportation Fleet: Historical Trend and Projected Growth
under the Baseline Scenario, 1980–2030 65
5.4 Baseline CO2e Emissions by Transport Mode 66
5.5 MEDEC Emissions Scenario for Transport 66
6.1 Geographic Distribution of Agriculture and Forestry Sector
Interventions 75
6.2 LULUCF CO2e Emissions under the MEDEC Scenario 79
7.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Baseline Scenario,
by Source 84
7.2 Projected Emissions Reduction by Sector under the MEDEC
Low-Carbon Scenario 87
7.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 88
7.4 Criteria for Selecting Low-Carbon Interventions 89
8.1 Marginal Abatement Investment Curve 96
C.1 Projected Vehicle Eff ciency with and without Proposed
Standard, 2010–30 130
Tables
1.1 MEDEC Interventions by Sector 21
2.1 Levelized Costs of Main Power Generation Technologies 28
2.2 Summary of MEDEC Interventions in the Electric Power Sector 29
2.3 Low-Carbon Development in the Mexican Electric Power Sector:
Barriers and Corrective Actions 31viii Contents
3.1 Pemex Cogeneration Potential 38
3.2 Potential for Compressor Seal Replacement in Mexico’s Gas
Processing Centers 40
3.3 Summary of MEDEC Interventions in the Oil and Gas Sector 41
4.1 Summary of MEDEC Interventions in the Energy End-Use Sectors 54
4.2 End-Use Eff ciency: Barriers and Corrective Actions 55
5.1 Summary of MEDEC Interventions in the Transport Sector 70
6.1 Summary of MEDEC Interventions in the Agriculture and
Forestry Sector 80
7.1 Key Assumptions and Indicators for Baseline Scenario 84
7.2 Results and Key Sector Developments under the MEDEC
Scenario 86
7.3 Combined Effect of MEDEC Interventions on the Mexican
Economy 90
8.1 MEDEC Investment Requirements to 2030 97
8.2 Low-Carbon Interventions by Financing Source 98
8.3 Potential Near-Term Interventions 104
A1 Estimated Investment, Emissions Reduction, and Net Abatement
Cost of MEDEC Interventions 107
C.1 Fuel Cost Assumptions for MEDEC Interventions 114
C.2 Downstream and Upstream Emissions 114
C.3 Baseline Technology Characteristics of Coal and Natural Gas 115
C.4 Projected Energy Capacity and Generation under the Baseline
Scenario 115
C.5 Costs and Savings for Utility Eff ciency Actions 118
C.6 Scope for Energy Savings from Nonresidential Air-Conditioning
and Lighting Interventions, by Type of Building 120
C.7 Technology Assumptions for Street Lighting 122
C.8 Technology Assumptions for Residential Lighting 124
C.9 Baseline Assumptions for Transport Sector 127
C.10 Assumptions for Vehicles and Passengers before and after BRT
Intervention 129
C.11 Assumptions about Vehicles and Passengers before
Nonmotorized Transpo