Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Marianne Fay, Rachel I. Block And Jane Ebinger

Description

The region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is already experiencing the consequences of climate change: increasing variability, warmer temperatures, altered hydrology. Events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires are increasing in number and severity. The concentration of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees that similar or greater changes are yet to come-even if the world were to completely stop emitting CO2 today.
This region is particularly vulnerable because of its legacy of socioeconomic issues, environmental mismanagement, aging infrastructure and housing, and under-investment in hydrometeorological, rural, and health institutions. The resulting adaptation deficit will exacerbate climate risks and hamper the ability of sectors that could gain from climate change, such as agriculture, to reap the full benefits.
'Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia' presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for the countries of ECA. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on natural resources, health, the unbuilt environment of agriculture and forestry, and the built environment of infrastructure and housing. The book concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening: disaster preparedness and hydrometeorological services.
The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change. While some impacts of climate change are already being felt, they are likely to remain manageable over the next decade, offering the ECA region a short period of time to focus on actions that have numerous benefits both today and in the future.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 28 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 16
• EAN13: 9780821381328
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

ADAPTING TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN EASTERN EUROPEIN
AND CENTRAL ASIAA
Marianne Fay, Rachel I. Block,
and Jane Ebinger,
EditorsIBRD 34198R1 SEPTEMBER 2009
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.
The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information
shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank
Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any
endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
RUSSIAN FED.RUSSIAN FED.RUSSIAN FED. ESTONIAESTONIAESTONIA
LALALATVIATVIATVIA
CZECHCZECHCZECH LITHUANIALITHUANIALITHUANIAPOLANDPOLANDPOLAND
REPREPREP...
BELARUS
SLOVENIA SLOVAK REP.
CROATIA HUNGARY
BOSNIA ANDBOSNIA A ND RUSSIAN FEDERATION
HERZEGOVINA UKRAINE
SERBIA ROMANIAMONTENEGRO MOLDOVA
KOSOVO
ALBANIA BULGARIA
FYR
MACEDONIA
TURKEYTURKEYTURKEY GEORGIAGEORGIAGEORGIA KAZAKHSTKAZAKHSTKAZAKHSTANANAN
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN KYRGYZ REP.
TAJIKISTAN
EUROPE AND
CENTRAL ASIA
This report is part of a series undertaken by the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank.
Earlier reports have investigated poverty, jobs, trade, migration, demography, and productivity growth.
The series covers the following countries:
Albania Latvia
Armenia Lithuania
Azerbaijan Moldova
Belarus Montenegro
Bosnia and Herzegovina Poland
Bulgaria Romania
Croatia Russian Federation
Czech Republic Serbia
Estonia Slovak Republic
FYR Macedonia Slovenia
Georgia Tajikistan
Hungary Turkey
Kazakhstan Turkmenistan
Kosovo Ukraine
Kyrgyz Republic UzbekistanADAPTING TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN
EASTERN EUROPE AND
CENTRAL ASIAADAPTING TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN
EASTERN EUROPE AND
CENTRAL ASIA
Marianne Fay
Rachel I. Block
Jane Ebinger,
Editors© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
E-mail: [e-mail]
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10

This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /
The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not nec-
essarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they rep-
resent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries,
colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any
judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorse-
ment or acceptance of such boundaries.
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8131-1
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8132-8
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8131-1
Cover design: Naylor Design, Washington, D.C.
Cover image: Corbis.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Fay, Marianne.
Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia / by Marianne Fay,
Rachel I. Block, and Jane Ebinger.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8131-1 (alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-8213-8132-8 (ebook)
1. Climatic changes--Government policy—Europe, Eastern. 2. Climatic changes--Government
policy—Russia (Federation.) 3. Environmental policy--Europe, Eastern. 4. Environmental policy—
Russia (Federation) I. Block, Rachel I. II. Ebinger, Jane O. III. Title.
QC903.2.E852F39 2009
363.700947—dc22 2009032583Contents
About the Editors and Authors xi
Acknowledgments xv
ECA Countries and Subregions xvii
Executive Summary xix
Abbreviations xxi
Overview 1
Climate Change—A Major Threat to Eastern Europe
and Central Asia 3
Vulnerability Will Be Dominated by Socioeconomic
Factors and Legacy Issues 6
Even Countries and Sectors that Could Benefit from
Climate Change Are Poorly Positioned To Do So 8
The Next Decade Offers a Window of Opportunity
for ECA Countries 9
Notes 11
1. A Framework for Developing Adaptation Plans 13
Vulnerability as a Function of Exposure, Sensitivity,
and Adaptive Capacity 15
From Vulnerability to Action: Tackling the Challenge
of Adaptation 22
Effective Adaptation Requires the Right
Decision-Making Tools 28
Notes 34 vvi Contents
2. How ECA ’s Climate Has Changed and Is Likely
to Change Further 37
Eastern Europe and Central Asia’s Climate Is
Already Changing 38
More Change Is Certain—the Question Is Where
and How 39
Climate Projections: How Is Eastern Europe and
Central Asia Likely To Be Affected? 40
Notes 51
3. Human Health: The Most Basic Vulnerability 53
Warmer and More Extreme Weather Brings New
Threats and Exacerbates Others 54
Vulnerability from Climate-Driven Migration:
The Health Perspective 60
Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritizing Protections 64
4. Climate Change Will Make W ater and Land Management
More Complex 69
More Difficult Water Resource Management—
Too Much or Too Little of a Good Thing? 70
More Stress on Already Stressed Coastal Areas 74
Declining Arctic Ice, Tundra, and Permafrost 80
Threats to Biodiversity Are Significant 80
Notes 88
5. The Unbuilt Environment: Agriculture and Forestry 91
Climate Impacts Will Exacerbate ECA’s Persistent
Problem of Rural Poverty 93
Models Predict There Will Be Winners and Losers
in ECA 95
The State and Sensitivities of ECA’s Agriculture Today 108
Potential Climate Change Winners Face Their
Own Challenges 113
Adaptation in the Productive Environment 115
Notes 116
6. The Built Environment: Cities, W ater Systems, Energy,
and Transport 121
Urban Challenges: Making Cities Livable and Viable
in a Warmer Century 123
Water: Supplying All Human Activity Essential for
Facing Multiple Pressures 127
Energy-Sector Vulnerabilities: New Pressure to
Overcome a Legacy of Inefficiency 130Contents vii
Transport: Taking On Another Increment of Challenge 135
Notes 137
7. Protection and Preparation: Disaster Risk Management
and Weather Forecasting 139
Softening the Blow When Disaster Strikes 140
Understanding When Extreme Weather Is Coming 146
Conclusion 150
Notes 151
References 153
Index 167
Boxes
1.1 Standard Approaches for Understanding Risk
and Developing an Adaptation Strategy 25
1.2 Lessons on the Engagement of Stakeholders
in Adaptation Plans—Urban Experiences 27
1.3 Is Adaptation any Different from Development? 29
1.4 The World Bank’s Climate Portal 33
1.5 Tools to Help You: Tools Portfolio of the UK
Climate Impact Program 34
2.1 General Circulation Models and Climate
Downscaling 41
2.2 The Skill of Models in Simulating Present
Climate in Eastern Europe and Central Asia 43
3.1 With Every Flood, a Risk of Disease 57
3.2 Adaptation Strategies for Floods and Heat Waves 66
4.1 Placing More Emphasis on River Basin
Management 75
4.2 Bioclimatic Models 84
5.1 Estimated Agronomic Impacts of Climate
Change in ECA to 2050: A Summary 97
5.2 Economic Agricultural Impact Models and
Their Limitations 106
6.1 Roma, Already Marginalized, Are Particularly
Vulnerable 123
6.2 Green Roofs to Manage Stormwater and
Heat Waves 126
6.3 ECA’s Energy Sector in Need of Investments
and Improved Management 131
7.1 Poland’s Flood Disaster Leads to Stepped-Up
Preparation 149viii Contents
Figures
1 ECA Countries Likely to Experience the
Greatest Increases in Climate Extremes by
the End of the 21st Century: Russia, Albania,
and Turkey 5
1.1 Conceptual Framework for Defining
Vulnerability 15
1.2 An Index of Exposure to Climate Change 18
1.3 Sensitivity19
1.4 Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change 19
1.5 An Index of Vulnerability to Climate Change 21
1.6 Impact of Natural Disasters in Eastern Europe
and Central Asia, 1990–2008 23
1.7 Global Warming: How Serious a Problem? 23
Box 1.3 Adaptation in the Context of Development 29
2.1 Natural Disasters in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia 38
3.1 How Migration Affects Health and Health
Systems 63
Box 6.3 ECA Has the World’s Highest Carbon
Intensity 131
7.1 Economic Loss P