Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets

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Abstract
The objective of this paper was to develop a useful framework for estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Tourism has become one of the most crucial sectors in a large number of emerging countries. Moreover, the tourism industry in such markets is forecasted to keep increasing in the next decade. Hence, understanding and accurately forecast demand in the industry is essential in order to manage this sector effectively. Using stepwise regression analysis, we found a number of im-portant variables in estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Our regression model can benefit travel agencies and policy makers dealing with the tourism industry.
Resumen
El objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar un marco útil para la estimación de la demanda para el turismo en los mercados emergentes. El turismo se ha convertido en uno de los sectores más cruciales en un gran número de países emergentes. Por otra parte, la industria del turismo en estos mercados se prevé que seguirán aumentando en la próxima década. Por lo tanto, comprender y predecir con exactitud la demanda en la industria es esencial para gestionar este sector de manera eficaz. Mediante un análisis de regresión por pasos, nos encontramos con una serie de variables im-portante en la estimación de la demanda turística en los mercados emergentes. Nuestro modelo de regresión se pueden beneficiar las agencias de viajes y los responsables de las políticas relacionadas con la industria del turismo.
Publicado el : jueves, 01 de enero de 2009
Lectura(s) : 47
Fuente : PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural 1695-7121 2009 Volumen 7 Número 3
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Vol. 7 Nº3 págs. 515-524. 2009

www.pasosonline.org


Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets



iChaiwat Baimai
Texas A&M International University (USA)


iiJose Luis Daniel
Texas A&M International University (USA)




Abstract: The objective of this paper was to develop a useful framework for estimating demand for
tourism in emerging markets. Tourism has become one of the most crucial sectors in a large number of
emerging countries. Moreover, the tourism industry in such markets is forecasted to keep increasing in
the next decade. Hence, understanding and accurately forecast demand in the industry is essential in
order to manage this sector effectively. Using stepwise regression analysis, we found a number of
important variables in estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Our regression model can
benefit travel agencies and policy makers dealing with the tourism industry.


Keywords: Market estimation; Tourism; Emerging markets; International marketing.



Resumen: El objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar un marco útil para la estimación de la demanda para
el turismo en los mercados emergentes. El turismo se ha convertido en uno de los sectores más cruciales
en un gran número de países emergentes. Por otra parte, la industria del turismo en estos mercados se
prevé que seguirán aumentando en la próxima década. Por lo tanto, comprender y predecir con exactitud
la demanda en la industria es esencial para gestionar este sector de manera eficaz. Mediante un análisis
de regresión por pasos, nos encontramos con una serie de variables im-portante en la estimación de la
demanda turística en los mercados emergentes. Nuestro modelo de regresión se pueden beneficiar las
agencias de viajes y los responsables de las políticas relacionadas con la industria del turismo.

Palabras clave: Estimación del mercado; Turismo; Mercados emergentes; Comercialización
internacional.




i College of Business Administration, Texas A&M International University 5201 University Blvd., Laredo,
TX 78041-1900, USA. E-mail: cbaimai@students.tamiu.edu
ii College of Business Administration, Texas A&M International University 5201 University Blvd., Laredo, Josedaniel@students.tamiu.edu
© PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural. ISSN 1695-7121 516 Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets

Introduction rism demand four times up by 2018, ac-
counting for US$2,465 billion, with an
anTravel and tourism have been consi- nual growth rate of 8.9%. The projection of
dered as an important industry in the ser- the increasing trend for tourism in
emergvice sector. The service sector consists of ing markets is presented in table 1. various kinds of industries such as
finanHowever, the tourism industry has been cial services, health care services, and
inaffected by the ongoing global economic formation sector services. Among these
crisis. The World Travel and Tourism industries, tourism is one of the most
imCouncil revealed the results of its Travel portant indicators of economic
contributions for both developed and developing and Tourism Competitiveness Report
countries. An economic impact of tourism (2009), explaining that the tourism trends
is significant, since huge amount of foreign will face a more challenging time than ever
inflow come from tourism. Moreover, tour- before due to the impact from an economic
ism accounts for the major source of cash uncertainty. The report also predicts a incomes, and it has been regarded as a
madownturn of international tourism particu-jor source of economic growth and
employlarly in emerging markets. Although the ment creation (Szivas and Riley, 1999).
tourism industry in emerging market will According to the World Tourism Barometer
2008, the trend of international tourism face a new challenge, it is believed that the
has increased continuously and is likely to trend will be positive in the long-run if
go up in the future. properly managed. Thus, understanding
Tourism has become one of the most and accurately forecast demand in the
incrucial sectors in a large number of emerg- dustry is essential in order to proactively
ing markets (Singh, 1997). Emerging survive during this tough time and
effecmarkets refer to countries that have rapid- tively manage the industry over time. It is
ly growing economy or that are in a transi- the intention of this study to develop a
usetional phase between developed and devel- ful framework for estimating demand for
oping status. Emerging markets comprise tourism in emerging markets.
more than half of the world's population,
account for a large share of world output, Background Literature
and have very high growth rates (Globa-
ledge, 2008). These emerging countries Identifying the determinants of tourism
have a strong effect to the global economy demand and specifying the tourism demand
as a whole. In fact, it is forecasted that by models are crucial for the generation of
2050 emerging countries especially the accurate forecast of futures tourisms
deBRIC economies ⎯Brazil, Russia, India, mand (Garcia, 2006). In this paper, a
marand China ⎯ will surpass those developed keting framework was applied for the
tourcountries as the United States, Japan, ism industry in emerging markets. It has
Germany, U.K., France, and Italy (Wilson long been known that the marking mix
and Purushorthaman, 2003). On top of model can help manage all products and
that, tourism in emerging markets is a services. To some extent, it can also be
major source of economic growth and fo- applied for the tourism industry. Basically,
reign income (Nowak et al., 2003). For the marketing mix includes four factors
these markets, the expected economic im- −product, price, place, and promotion.
provement relied heavily on the amount of The first dimension of the marketing
tou-rism inflow. mix is product. In term of international
The tourism industry in emerging mar- tourism, products are considered as the
kets is forecasted to keep increasing in the
location of destination. Considering
tournext decade. For example, the tourism
ism as a product, rich of nature and uni-industry China and India are growing
raqueness of a particular destination are the pidly, leading to a significant increase in
unit of interest. With regard to this view-both business and leisure travel. In
particpoint, national protected area and national ular, China will jump from fourth to second
position above Japan and Germany and is heritages are the important variables to
forecasted to increase its travel and tou- attract international tourists.
PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 7(3). 2009 ISSN 1695-7121

Chaiwat Baimai and Jose Luis Daniel 517


Tourism Tourism Tourism Tourism as Employment in Employment in Tourism as a
Arrivals receipts expenditure a % of service sector tourist sector
% of GDP
(millions) (US$M) (US M) service (million) (thousand)
Argentina 4.15 2883.40 2892.00 2.38 1.35 12.18 290,167.03
Brazil 5.014972.704894.500.700.4665.65462,619.56
Chile 2.09 1304.40 1106.40 2.03 0.89 4.39 89,256.81
China 49.6 30870.10 22950.40 2.781.11257.06 7,134,128.48
Colombia 1.05 1225.80 1130.30 1.72 0.90 12.08 207,384.94
Czech Rep. 6.43 4875.60 2502.80 5.80 3.41 3.12 180,834.83
Egypt 8.64 7131.90 1688.60 14.68 6.62 11.27 1,654,278.17
Hungary 9.25 4407.70 3050.70 5.94 3.902.56 152,349.84
India 4.444702.704854.900.970.51 144.591,404,707.40
Indonesia87 4387.00 3577.60 3.06 1.2042.53 1,299,650.96
Israel 2.012896.902932.403.042.04 1.4443,704.06
Malaysia 15.9 8973.70 3810.00 12.83 5.755.56 714,039.12
Mexico 21.35 12253.80 7779.72.10 1.46 26.32 552,450.00
Peru 1.63 1270.40 694.20 2.061.367.18 148,259.79
Philippines 2.702153.301296.803.34 1.83 18.11605,307.19
Poland 15.67 6328.30 4389.10 2.88 1.86 9.34 269,132.50
Russia 20.19 5483.918081.10 0.990.5544.83 442,461.00
Saudi Arabia 8.62 4930.00 4467.60 4.54 1.41 4.13 187,729.70
S. Africa 8.39 7665.40 3453.90 4.55 2.98 13.32 605,821.48
Thailand 13.88 10263.60 5153.80 11.13 4.98 13.73 1,529,024.54
Turkey 18.91 19747.60 3042.57.36 4.62 10.41 766,271.71
Venezuela 770 662.10 1947.00 0.620.367.92 49,219.32
Table 1. Tourism Inflow in Emerging Markets

A considerable portion of the value to Also, national heritage is a substance
tourists is attributable to national pro- attraction for international tourism.
Contected area. National protected area is sidering tourism in the country of origin as
defined as legally established land or water a product, cultural tourism is another focal
area under either public or private owner- variable to be included in the model.
Culship that is regulated and managed to tural tourism has long been considered as
achieve specific conservation objectives. an attraction for international tourism.
Walpole and Goodwin (2001) examined Cultural tourism is defined as a unique
attitudes towards protected area tourism interest tourism based on the search for
and the effects of tourism benefits on local and participation in new and deep cultural
support for a national protected area in experiences, whether aesthetic,
intellecIndonesia. The result showed that incom- tual, emotional, or psychological (Stebbins,
ing tourism is consistent with the existence 1996). McKercher & Cros (2003) suggested
of the park. Further, Tisdell ( 1995) found that about 35 to 70 percent of international
that ignoring the importance of this factor tourism look for cultural tourism including
might indicate negative impact to tourism. unique places when they plan to travel
For instance, deterioration in Thailand's abroad. This uniqueness refers to a
numenvironment is one of the major reasons for ber of national heritages in a specific
coundeclining Japanese tourist visiting to the try. Peleggi (1996) examined the relevance
country since 1990. of Thailand's heritage attractions to both
PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 7(3). 2009 ISSN 1695-7121

518 Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets

international and domestic tourism. The tourism and larger hotels to support such
finding was that national heritage has a increasing trend. Besides accommodations
significance impact to international tour- or hotels, a safety or security issue is also
ism, and constitutes a major attraction for considered as an important aspect to
the expanding domestic tourism sector. attract international tourism. How well a
The second factor related to the market- country is can be thought of in term of a
ing mix is price or cost of travel. The number of offenses in that country. Offence
amount that travelers have to pay largely is defined as any act which is punishable
determines their destinations. Other fac- under law including both criminal and
tors being equal, most travelers tend to administrative offences. After the
aftertravel abroad in countries that have rela- math of September eleventh, security or
tively low cost. This cost of travel depends safety has been ranked among the top
conheavily on a currency exchange rate. All siderations for international tourism (Poon
monetary operations such as currency de- and Low, 2005).
valuation have some degree of impact on Promotion is the last dimension in the
tourism demand at different significance marketing mix. Branding image has
levels. For international tourism, exchange traditionally been important for all
rate acts as both a direct and indirect products and services, and as a result the
influence. Jo and Sarigollu (2007) found branding of destinations has become a
that a perception of prices has a significant major factor to drive up the demand in the
effect for international tourism, and sug- tourism industry. One way to build a good
gested that appropriate exchange rate image of a country is to promote the
counpolicies can make significamt impacts for try to the eyes of the world. During the
international tourism. Greenwood (2007) past decade, many countries invested a
posited that currency exchange mainly huge amount of money through variety of
determines the attractiveness of a channels such as country branding
destination. The impact of exchange rates campaigns, road show advertising, and
also affects the domestic holiday market as word of mouth strategy. Tang et al. (2007)
travelers choose foreign markets when found that one of the critical success factors
rates and prices are optimal. (Demir, 2004) for international tourism destinations is
examined how devaluation and revaluation country branding. As a nation, a country
affect tourism demand in Turkey, one of advertises its attractiveness through
nathe fastest growing tourism industries in tional campaign or destination branding.
the world, and found currency rate has Destination branding plays a significant
strongly influenced domestic and interna- role in attracting tourism, and it is
generaltional tourism demand in Turkey. ly considered as the most common reasons
The third element in the marketing mix for country branding. Moreover,
is place. Herein, place simply refer to how destination branding is growing rapidly as
a country can sell its products to customers. an approach to tourism destination
Empirical researches show that investment promotion (Murphy et.al., 2007). More
in accommodations increase a number of than 30 countries of the world have specific
visitors. Such accomodations refer to programs for attracting tourism. For
explaces that provide lodging and optional ample, Australia used the campaign called
meals to customers. Harvey (2007) posited "selling Australia: branding a country"
vidthat international tourism in emerging eo, using Paul Hogan from Crocodile
Dunmarkets is generating increased travellers dee to promote Australia as a tourist
destifrom time to time. To response to this nation. Likewise, “Amazing Thailand," and
trend, preparing accomodations such as "Malaysia, truly Asia" were well-known
hotel room, hotel staff, and hotel operator national brandings in the south East Asian
are necessary for such markets. Further, region. Investing in national
advertiseTaylor et al.(2009) proposed that although ment through campaigns related to
brandfacing economic growth, the tourism ing a country or destination branding
atindustry will continue to be the major tracted a large number of foreigners to
tradriver of economic downturn. The growth vel abroad (Mok Kim Man and
Ariasin tourism requires a restructuring of Bolzmann, 2007).
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Chaiwat Baimai and Jose Luis Daniel 519

In summary, litterateurs show that a emerging markets depends on an
integrawide variety of variables has an impact to tion of the marketing mix that a country
the international tourism. However, we set employs. In this paper, six variables were
out a framework to narrow down the scope selected in order to predict demand for
in order to select important variables in tourism in emerging markets. The chosen
this paper. Our framework is based on the variables are national heritages, national
very fundamental of the marketing founda- protected area, exchange rate, hotels,
oftion that is the marketing mix. The mar- fences, and advertisement expenditure. All
keting mix has been widely used in many variables are included in the multiple
reareas but international tourism. This in- gression models specified below:
tention of this research is to fill this gap. Yi = α + β1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 X3 + β4 X4 + β5
All variables related to the marketing mix X5 + β6 X6 + e ……….……… [Model 1]
are included in regression models explain- Zi = α + β1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 X3 + β4 X4 + β5
ing in the next section. X5 + β6 X6 + e ..……………… [Model 2]
Where,
Multiple Regression Modeling Yi = Tourism receipts in country i
(T RE CE )
A large number of variables have an im- Zi = Tourism arrival in country i
pact for tourists’ spending in emerging (TARRI)
markets. The choice of variables is a cru- X1 = National heritages (HER)
cial issue in predicting demand or in de- X2 = National protected area (NAT)
termining causality in regression modeling X3 = Exchange rate against $US (EXC)
(Waheeduzzaman, 2008). Although it is X4 = Hotel (HOT)
not possible to include all variables in a X5 = Offence (OFF)
model, this study includes important va- X6 = Advertisement expenditure (ADV)
riables affecting demand in tourism. More- α = Intercept
over, the analysis is different in a way that e = Error term
we integrate and pay closer attention to All variables, except exchange rates, in
marketing viewpoints, the marketing mix, the regression models indicating their
in the proposed model. The central premise growth are summarized in table 2.
is that the amount that tourists spend in


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tourism 76234 74774 81506 83695 86615 87912 111107 121731 137383 142655 149386
receipts(m)
Tourism 634 680 684 713 713 684 792 853 907 983 994
arrival(m)
National 146 161 184 195 200 211 220 231 237 242 249
heritages
Nat protec. 367 386 400 407 429 444 6450 475 482 500 506
(k-m²)
Hotels (k) 262 316 339 371 400 441 495 540 573 595 612

Offences(k) 376 389 394 411 415 424 422 428 431 432 404

Tourism 33963 36768 43330 47138 54050 60863 70230 80199 89316 104193 105696
Expen. (m)
Table 2. Growth for Variables Related to Tourism for Emerging Markets


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520 Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets


Data Collection Group Variable/Results TARRI TRECE

This paper used secondary data from
various reliable sources. The list of emerg- All F-Ratio 42.368** 55.394**
ing countries was obtained from the Econ- emerging R-Square 0.629 0.689
omist, the premier source for the analysis countries
of world business and current affairs. Intercept 1.017 6.690
Twenty five countries are listed in the HER 0.017 0.064
Economist as emerging countries. EXC -0.031 -0.055
However, three countries were excluded in OFF 0.133* -0.169*
the analysis due to the lack of information HOT 0.630** 0.615**
from the heritage list for Singapore and NAT -0.103 0.026
Taiwan, whereby Hong Kong was excluded ADV 0.181 0.076
as it became a part of China before 1999.
Thus, the final samples consist of twenty
two emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic,
* = correlation significant at the .05 levelEgypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel,
** = correlation significant at the .01 levelMalaysia, Mexico, Peru, The Philippines,
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Table 3. Regression Result: Parameter
EsThailand, Turkey and Venezuela. timates and Significance.
Other secondary databases used in this
study include the Global Market Informa- Then, stepwise multiple regression
technique was used in order to select the tion Database (GMID) of Euromonitor and
best regression equation. This method the world heritage list of the United
Nahelps the selection of the minimum number tions Educational Scientific and Cultural
of variables necessary to account for almost Organization (UNESCO). Multiple
regresas much of the variance as is accounted for sion analysis and stepwise regression anal- by the total set. Presented in table 4, the
ysis were applied with the help of result form stepwise selection shows that
Statistical Package for the Social Sciences hotels, heritages, and offences were
se(SPSS) version 16, using longitudinal data lected for model 1 with tourist arrival as a
for the period 1978 - 2008. dependent variable. For model 2, the
selected variables were heritages and adver-
tisement expenditure. All variables are Results
significant at 0.01 level. The summary of
the Stepwise selection is showed in table 5. First, we analyzed the whole models
with linear regression analysis. The
reGroup Variable/ TARRI TRECE sults of linear multiple regression analysis
Results
for all emerging countries is presented in
table 3. Coefficients followed by “*” are
All emer- F-Ratio 120.993** 108.457**significant at the 0.05 level in a one-tailed
ging coun- R-Square 0.606 0.680 correlation test; coefficients followed by “**”
tries
are significant at the 0.01 level. Tourist Intercept 2.448 6.888
arrival and tourist receipt were used as HOT 7.677** 0.693**
dependent variables in separated models. HER -- 0.147*
The results show that offences and hotels OFF -- -0.117*
ADV 3.210* -- are significant for the two models at the
0.01 and 0.05 level of significance,
respectively. The R-square of each model is 0.629
for model 1 and 0.689 for model 2, indicat-
* = correlation significant at the .05 level
ing that the regression models with the ** = correlation significant at the .01 level
selected independent variables could
exTable 4. Stepwise Regression Results: Pa-plain almost 36 % and 47% of the variation
rameter Estimates and Significance. in the criterion variable Y.



PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 7(3). 2009 ISSN 1695-7121

Chaiwat Baimai and Jose Luis Daniel 521


Durable Variable Variable Number Partial Model F Value Pr > F
Step Entered Removed Vars In R-Sqr R-Sqr

TARRI 1 HOT 1 0.653 0.651 291.992 <.0001
2 HER -- 2 0.667 0.663 154.213
3 OFF 3 0.680 0.674 108.457 <.0001


TRECE 1 HER 1 0.585 0.582 218.454** <.0001
2 ADV -- 2 0.611 0.606 120.933**


Table 5. Summary of Stepwise Selection.

Base on the results of the stepwise re- three variables should be a focal concern in
gression analysis, tourist receipts as a de- managing the tourism industry in
emergpendent variable (model2) is likely to be a ing marlets.
more reliable model since the R- square The finding will be useful for travel
(from table 3) is higher. Also, for model 2, agency and policy maker. As tourism has
three independent variables are statistical- become a major global activity, developing
ly significant in the regression equation right policies for international tourism is
compared to model 1 which two variables important factor as a part of strategic
are significant. Thus, based on model 2, planning for emerging markets. Cultural
the estimation equation for tourism in tourism is a major target for international
emerging markets is as follows: Yi = 6.89 + tourism, and one of the most important
0.69(HOT) + 0.15(HER) – 0.12 (OFF). attractions of cultural tourism is national
heritages. Governments of these emerging
Summary and discussion should maintain their heritages in good
shape and proactively promote them
International tourism is one of the most through the eyes of the world. One way to
important industries in the service sector. do so is to try to register possible heritage
Especially for emerging markets, huge to the world heritage list of the United
Naamount of tourism inflow comes from tour- tions Educational Scientific and Cultural
ism. Although facing a little uncertainty Organization. Moreover, building natural-
from the ongoing economic downturn, the related hotels would benefit tourism
activitrend of tourism is predicted to increase ties in emerging markets as the trend of
constantly in the future. To maintain this tourism is moving toward rest and
relaxagrowth, it is timely to develop a useful tion such as spa or natural resorts, natural
framework in managing the tourism indus- conservation such as biodiversity,
ecotourtry in emerging markets. This study se- ism, and healthy-related activities.
Finallected a number important macroeconomic ly, government policies aim at promoting
variables based on the marketing mix ele- security issues would help promote the
ments to create variables affecting tourism tourism industry in emerging markets.
in emerging markets. This study has some limitations.
ReThe regression analysis using six inde- lated to the security issues, political
stabilipendent variables shows the most impor- ty is another prospective variable affecting
tant factors of market potential estimation international tourism. For instance, recent
for tourism in emerging markets. Although evidence showed that political turmoil and
model 2 has higher R-square, the analysis street protests in the capital Bangkok
defor both models showed that offences and stroyed Thailand's reputation as a tourist
hotels are the most important variables. destination, and as a result the country lost
Further, according to the stepwise selection approximately 5.35 billion dollars in
touranalysis in model 2, the most significant ism revenue and millions of visitors.
Howindependent variables are national heri- ever, this variable was not included in the
tages, hotels, and offences. Hence, these current model because of the lack of data.
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522 Market Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets

Another aspect of holding back interna- ing quantitative methodology to get
statistional tourism is healthy concerns as ob- tical inferences regarding the population,
vious seen in the case of the swine flu cri- or qualitative techniques closer to the
ethsis. The healthy factor is an unforeseen nography, such as participant observation.
circumstance which is unlikely to be in- One of the limitations of the present
cluded in the model, and consequently may study is the absence of native residents in
distort the accuracy of the predicted model. the group studied. So the inclusion of
naFurthermore, all countries in the emerging tives would be another element that would
markets may have different kinds of attrac- provide valuable information in future
stutions. An estimation for each country or dies. Another limitation is related to the
cluster countries was not analyzed due to fact that many of the interviewees´
percepthe lack of degree of freedom. Thirty-year tions are from the past time, thus drawing
observation may create problematic issue on their memories, something that could
in estimating demand with six independent lead to a distortion of what really
hapvariables, especially when there are some pened. To minimize this effect in future
missing data points for some countries. studies, the collection of more detailed
secA number of studies along this line have ondary historical data is suggested.
accumulated considerable contribution on Regarding the main research question
methodological approaches to tourism es- results indicate that three factors seem to
timation, and a number of techniques as have enabled Praia do Forte to develop a
well as various kinds of models have different path from other similar
destinaevolved. Continued research and experi- tions, especially from a cultural perspective
mentation are needed, especially to deter- (as Sachs, 1986, eco-development model): i)
mine optimum forms of tourism develop- singular entrepreneur performance of
ment for particular types of areas. Most Klaus Peter, who spearheaded touristic
important variables, if not all, in estimat- exploration of the region in the period
being demand in international tourism are tween the 1980s and the beginning of the
integrated in the multiple regression mod- 2000´s; ii) Tamar environmental
preservaels in this study. tion and educational Project (also since the
1980s) and, iii) FGD cultural foundation
Conclusions (also an Peters’ initiative).
The research strongly suggests that, at
Tourism has an important role in the least from the local residents' point of view,
economy of several countries and appears the combined action of these three agents
as a potential strategy for the growth of enabled the adoption of strategic
differendeveloping countries, especially those en- tiating factors that led to a more controlled
dowed with places of renowned natural rhythm of tourism development at the site
beauty and cultural diversity, as is the case which helped to improve the management
of Brazil. of negative sociocultural and environmen-
Primary and secondary data were used tal side effects.
with the intent of answering the research Between the differentials is outstanding
question of how it was possible for Praia do the importance of active participation of the
Forte to embark on a path of tourism de- local community in the tourism planning,
velopment in a way that differentiates it- the maintenance of ample cultural
touristsself from other similar coastal destinations residents contact opportunities, and, lastly,
not only in Brazil but throughout the the fostering of education and professional
world. qualification of the local population.
Being a qualitative case study, the re- Results exemplify one of the greatest
sults correspond only to the perceptions of challenges to a more-sustainable tourism
the group of residents who were inter- destinations development: the impacts
viewed and cannot be generalized. There- caused by the intercultural contact between
fore, it is suggested its replication on other tourists and residents (especially in small
coastal tourism destinations and contexts, communities isolated from larger urban
as well as the development of a more in- centers). This is truer, still, in cases that
depth study to Praia do Forte region, apply- prioritize the foreign tourist as the target
PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 7(3). 2009 ISSN 1695-7121

Chaiwat Baimai and Jose Luis Daniel 523

public where different national cultures are Of course, from a practical point of view,
involved. this reflection can also be extended to a
Regarding the positive impacts of tour- global context as it is not an isolated
expeism development on the local community, rience but a fact already observed in many
that also steer the destination towards a international mass tourism destinations
more-sustainable development are: (Buhalis, 2000). So, we can highlight two
strength and revive local traditions and points similar to them: Firstly, be inspired
values; higher income and better jobs; by the Praia do Forte path from the 1980s
greater environmental awareness and non- to the early 2000s, other tourism
destinalethal use of nature; getting back to histori- tions might equally benefit from search for
cal and cultural roots (something which, in cultural and environmental public policy
turn, facilitates restoration, conservation similar supported strategies. Secondly, as
and protection of the physical spaces and soon as there are signs of getting close to
access to incentives for the recovery of con- the carrying capacity limits of these
destistructions and historical sites); and, the nations, it is vital to watch out for the
recreation and maintenance of protected view of its own strategic public and
goverareas. nance policies.
Finally, the results obtained as a re-
sponse to identification of the current sus- Acknowledgements
tainability degree of tourism development
(secondary research question) were notable. We thank A. N. M. Waheeduzzaman for
Surprisingly, the testimonies show evi- invaluable suggestion, feedback, and
guiddence of a lot of negative impacts on resi- ance. We also thank Ned Kock for his
dent community, mostly starting at the comments on data analysis. A related
pabeginning of the current decade which in- per was presented at the 14th Annual
Concludes cultural changes, such as accultura- ference: Emerging Challenges in the
Westtion and demonstration effects. ern Hemisphere, Tecnológico de Monterrey,
Although the existence of a causal rela- Mexico, and we thank reviewers and
partictionship between the tourism activity and ipants for useful comments. All errors
rethe abovementioned perception cannot be main our own.
concluded from the present study, results
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